Better Late than... Never!

Seeking Out Failure, Believe It or Not
Can Lead to Long Term Success

Hey,

I know it's Tuesday --- okay.

I missed writing yesterday because I was in beautiful,
warm, (not HOT...) Catalina Island, CA. (and don't
forget, I said... island, because that is exactly
what it is.... it's an island in CA.)

Talk about fun. I took a ferry, (one hour and fifteen
minutes from San Pedro, CA and then walked the small town
for about 6 hours, shopping.

I found a really cool watch, went on a tour and found
out from the tour guide how this little island came
to be so famous. Marilyn Monroe, Errol Flynn, all the
big names used to go to Catalina Island.

Like I said, pretty cool stuff.

The weather was perfect and I took some killer photos
and videos.

This place is unbelieveable.

AWESOME. You should go there ONCE in your life. It'll
change the way you think about traveling abroad.

Well enough about that. Here's the really important
stuff.

I read a very interesting blog post the other day
about "survivor bias," an important statistical
principle that could greatly affect your future
success.

In brief, survivor bias
occurs when an analysis excludes information since
that information no longer exists.

Wow, is that getting technical or what?

Let me give you an example...

The English forces, during World War II, sent planes
each day to bomb the Germans. As you might expect,
several of these planes were shot down.

And, the ones that did come back typically returned
with multiple bullet holes.

Now, the English obviously wanted to maximize the
chances of its planes and soldiers returning home. soooo
English engineers (GOD help them) studied the planes that
returned.

In doing so, they found patterns among the bullet holes.

Specifically they found lots of holes on the wings and
tail of the plan, but few in the cockpit or fuel tanks.

As a result, the English added armored plating to the
wings and tail.

As you might have already concluded, this was the wrong
thing to do.

The better decision would have been to add armored plating
to the cockpit and fuel tanks.

For, the planes that were shot in those places were the planes
that were shot down and never returned.

Duh.....

The English engineers' analysis missed this data because these
were the planes that they were unable to examine.

This is "survivor bias"-- their inability to include this critical
data in their analysis since it was unavailable or didn't "survive."

So why does this matter to you?

Why would you care about this "survivor bias"?

It matters because as you start and/or grow your businesses,
you will have to hire service providers or staff.

And naturally, you will want to hire those with a track
record of success. I mean you don't want to hire someone that
doesn't know JACK about what they're doing right?

But, when you hire staff who have only worked at successful
companies, you may fall victim to survivor bias. That is,
they have not learned many of the lessons that individuals
and companies learn when they 'fail'.

Likewise, when you hire an employee that claims that
every one of their prior employers has been successful,
maybe even say it was because of them, they haven't learned
from failure.

Here's what you need to remember.

You can learn more from failure than from success.

While that can be debated, from personal experience I
can say that I've learned a ton from both failure and
success.

From successes, I have learned principles and formulas that
worked. The ones I strive to replicate on a daily basis.

And from failures, I have learned things to avoid.

I have learned flaws in my thinking.

But importantly, many of my successes have come out of failure.

From tinkering ideas and plans that weren't quite working.

And making them work. And, these new ideas would never have
come to me had I not failed first.

Now, clearly my advice is not to hire failures or people
with a habit of failure. But, likewise, it's not to hire people
who claim to always succeed.

Since a balance between success and failure often provides
that winning combination of wisdom.

So, the next time you are interviewing a key employee, make
sure to ask about their failures.

Ask about tasks and jobs that they or their companies failed at.
And find out what they learned from that failure. It's a simple
question, but when you ask it, you'll find out some very interesting
answers. Try it.

Ideally they are the types of candidates that learned a lot
from their failures and were able to overcome them.

This is because the vast majority of growing companies fail
at things over and over again. It is their ability to constantly
modify and improve their businesses that enables them to excel.

Surround yourself with people that have this ability.

Well I hope this post will help you.

Have a great day and be the best you can be.
Nothing wrong with that.

Dr. Carney